Forex Trading System Article Of The Month
Forex Fundamental Analysis
The two primary approaches of analyzing Forex markets are technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis comprises the examination of economic indicators, asset markets and political considerations when evaluating a nation�s currency in terms of another. The focus of fundamental analysis lies on the economic, social and political forces that drive supply and demand. There is no single set of beliefs that guide forex fundamental analysis, yet most fundamental analysts look at various macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth rates, interest rates, inflation, and unemployment.
Here we look at some of the major Forex fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency:
Economic Indicators
Economic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that detail a country�s economic performance. These economic indicators can be released on a weekly basis, but the more common report is monthly. Indicators are based around a number of economical situations, of which the two primary factors are that of International trade and Interest. Subsidiary factors also include Consumer Price Index (CPI), Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Durable goods orders, retail sales and Producer Price Index (PPI).
Currency�s Interest Rates
One of the major indicator factors, Interest rates, are a key economic function of any nation. Generally, when a country raises its interest rates, the country�s currency will strengthen in relation to other currencies as assets are shifted to gain a higher return. Interest rates hikes, however, are usually not good news for stock markets. This is due to the fact that many investors will withdraw money from a country�s stock market when there is a hike of interest rates.
International Trade
The trade balance portrays the net difference (over a period of time) between the imports and exports of a nation. A trade deficit can be an economic disaster for a government and a currency. A deficit may appear when a country is importing more than it is exporting, meaning that more money is leaving and less is coming in. In some ways, however, a trade deficit in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. A deficit is only negative if the deficit is greater than market expectations and therefore will trigger a negative price movement.
From http://www.forex-articles.net
Quick Forex Ideasforex cargo
Each Forex Trading cycle is different from the last one and that is the beauty of the market. It is extremely important to look at the big picture from the distance rather than studying the minute and hourly charts with a microscope. And repeat the whole show again and again ?til it shows the sign of turning in daily or weekly chart. And flip. Good trades to you.
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USING STOPS
Please always give stop order per your risk profile when you open any new position. Medium-term reversals can be confirmed only in monthly, weekly and daily charts. Chart reading is not to predict the tops or bottoms of any move, but to confirm the change of trend as soon as they are made and adopt right strategies in that new trend. Good trades.
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Basic forex pivot point trading is based on two prevailing tendencies. If a day�s price action begins above the pivot point, prices will tend to stay above that point (fulcrum) until it reaches a resistance point. Conversely, if a day�s pricing action begins below the pivot point, the price will tend to stay below that point until it reaches a support point. A resistance level is a price that tends to prevent further upward movement. A support price is a price action point that tends to prevent further downward movement
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Historically, SMBs and individual investors have had limited access to the forex market. For decades, major banks, multinational corporations and other participants, trading in large transaction sizes and volumes, have dominated this market. However, just like many other business segments technology has lowered the barriers of entry and opened up this attractive marketplace to a new breed of investors and speculators.
Forex Trading System NewsGBP/USD Could Tumble to 1.9860 If BOE Meeting Minutes Reflect Dovish BiasTue, 22 Apr 2008 22:48:07 -0400
APR 23 Bank of England Meeting Minutes (8:30 GMT; 4:30 EST) Expected: 8-1 In Favor of -25bps, Dissent -50bps Previous: 7-2 In Favor of No Cut
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Understanding Forex Article Of The Month
Trading with Strategy
by Nicholas H. Bang
Trading successfully is by no means a simple matter. It requires time, market knowledge and market understanding and a large amount of self restraint. ACM does not manage accounts, nor does it give market advice, that is the job of money managers and introducing brokers. As market professionals, we can however point the novice in the right direction and indicate what are correct trading tactics and considerations and what is total nonsense.
Anyone who says you can consistently make money in foreign exchange markets is being untruthful. Foreign exchange by nature, is a volatile market. The practice of trading it by way of margin increases that volatility exponentially. We are therefore talking about a very �fast market� which is naturally inconsistent. Following that precept, it is logical to say that in order to make a successful trade, a trader has to take into account technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision based on his perception of market sentiment and market expectation. Timing a trade correctly is probably the most important variable in trading successfully but invariably there will be times where a traders� timing will be off. Don�t expect to generate returns on every trade.
Let�s enumerate what a trader needs to do in order to put the best chances for profitable trades on his side:
Trade with money you can afford to lose:
Trading fx markets is speculative and can result in loss, it is also exciting, exhilarating and can be addictive. The more you are �involved with your money� the harder it is to make a clear-headed decision. Money you have earned is precious, but money you need to survive should never be traded.
Identify the state of the market:
What is the market doing? Is it trending upwards, downwards, is it in a trading range. Is the trend strong or weak, did it begin long ago or does it look like a new trend that�s forming. Getting a clear picture of the market situation is laying the groundwork for a successful trade.
Determine what time frame you�re trading on:
Many traders get in the market without thinking when they would like to get out, after all the goal is to make money. This is true but when trading, one must extrapolate in his mind�s eye the movement that one expects to happen. Within this extrapolation, resides a price evolution during a certain period of time. Attached to this is the idea of exit price. The importance of this is to mentally put your trade in perspective and although it is clearly impossible to know exactly when you will exit the market, it is important to define from the outset if you�ll be �scalping� (trying to get a few points off the market) trading intra-day, or going longer term. This will also determine what chart period you�re looking at. If you trade many times a day, there�s no point basing your technical analysis on a daily graph, you�ll probably want to analyse 30 minute or hour graphs. Additionally it is important to know the different time periods when various financial centers enter and exit the market as this creates more or less volatility and liquidity and can influence market movements.
Time your trade:
You can be right about a potential market movement but be too early or too late when you enter the trade. Timing considerations are twofold, an expected market figure like CPI, retail sales or a federal reserve decision can consolidate a movement that�s already underway. Timing your move means knowing what�s expected and taking into account all considerations before trading. Technical analysis can help you identify when and at what price a move may occur. We will look at technical analysis in more detail later.
If in doubt, stay out:
If you�re unsure about a trade and find you�re hesitating, stay on the sidelines.
Trade logical transaction sizes:
Margin trading allows the fx trader a very large amount of leverage, trading at full margin capacity (in ACM�s case 1% or 0.5%) can make for some very large profits or losses on an account. Scaling your trades so that you may re-enter the market or make transactions on other currencies is generally wiser. In short, don�t trade amounts that can potentially wipe you out and don�t put all your eggs in one basket. ACM offers the same rates regardless of transaction sizes so a customer has nothing to lose by starting small.
Gauge market sentiment:
Market sentiment is what most of the market is perceived to be feeling about the market and therefore what it is doing or will do. This is basically about trend. You may have heard the term �the trend is your friend�, this basically means that if you�re in the right direction with a strong trend you will make successful trades. This of course is very simplistic, a trend is capable of reversal at any time. Technical and fundamental data can indicate however if the trend has begun long ago and if it is strong or weak.
Market expectation:
Market expectation relates to what most people are expecting as far as upcoming news is concerned. If people are expecting an interest rate to rise and it does, then there usually will not be much of a movement because the information will already have been �discounted� by the market, alternatively if the adverse happens, markets will usually react violently.
Use what other traders use:
In a perfect world, every trader would be looking at a 14 day RSI and making trading decisions based on that. If that was the case, when RSI would go under the 30 level, everyone would buy and by consequence the price would rise. Needless to say, the world is not perfect and not all market participants follow the same technical indicators, draw the same trendlines and identify the same support & resistance levels. The great diversity of opinions and techniques used translates directly into price diversity. Traders however have a tendency to use a limited variety of technical tools. The most common are 9 and 14 day RSI, obvious trendlines and support levels, fibonnacci retracement, MACD and 9, 20 & 40 day exponential moving averages. The closer you get to what most traders are looking at, the more precise your estimations will be. The reason for this is simple arithmetic, larger numbers of buyers than sellers at a certain price will move the market up from that price and vice-versa.
Nicholas H. Bang http://www.ac-markets.com/
Additional Info On Forex Todaycurrency
When looking at the technical analysis in the Forex, there are three basic principles that are used to make projections. These principles are based on the market action in relation to current events, trends in price movements and past Forex history. When the market action is looked at, everything from supply and demand, current politics and the current state of the market are taken into consideration. It is usually agreed that the actual price of the Forex is a direct reflection of current events.
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Trading in the FOREX market is realized in lots. When you open a position, you can choose the number of lots you want from 1 to 10. One lot equals $ 100,000. The deposit sum for one lot will vary from $500 to $2000, depending on the credit leverage you choose. Leverage is a financial mechanism that allows crediting speculative transactions with a small deposit. We give you an opportunity to choose a credit leverage in the range of 1:200 to 1:25.
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Why should you worry about the price of oil if you're not buying and selling oil? If you're trading currencies, there's one very good reason. Many of the most important currency trading pairs rise and fall on the price of a barrel of oil. The price of oil has been a leading indicator of the world economy for decades, and experts predict that that won't be changing any time soon. The connection between the price of oil and the economy of many countries is based on a couple of simple facts:
- Countries with healthy supplies of crude oil benefit economy-wise from higher oil prices
- Countries who depend on imports for their energy needs benefit from lower oil prices and lose when oil prices rise
- When the economy of a country is strong, its currency is also strong in the forex market
- When the economy in a country takes a downturn, its currency loses value in the currency exchange rate.
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All The Latest News From The Understanding Forex WorldNokia net rises but misses estimatesThu, 17 Apr 2008 10:12:37 EDT
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Another reliable economic indicator in the foreign exchange market is the industrial production report. This report shows the fluctuation in productions in industries such as factories, and utilities. The report looks at actual production in relation to what the production capacity potential is over a period of time. When a country is producing at a maximum capacity it positively affects the Forex and is considered ideal conditions for traders.
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Canada has been climbing on the list of the world's oil producers for years, and is currently the ninth largest exporter of oil worldwide. Since the year 2000, Canada has been the largest supplier of oil to the U.S., and has been getting considerable attention from the Chinese market. It's predicted that by 2010, China's import needs for oil will double, and match that of the U.S. by 2030. Currently, Canada is positioned to be the largest exporter of oil to China. This puts Canada's dollar in an excellent position from a trading perspective.
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As a rule of thumb, 20 MAs in 8 hour, day, week and month are useful for its directional tendency and as a resistance and support point. Not sure how much it is useful in daytrading though.
Please have a look at Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy weekly 10 RSI and Aud/Usd monthly 10 RSI "patterns", not levels. Then you will find out primitive things work better when coupled with even simpler MAs. And RSI is useful "only in these weekly and monthly time scale" as far as I can see. You can ignore RSI in short-term scales as the inventor of RSI, Wilder, told us long ago.
Forex Currency Trading GaloreWeekly Trading Lesson: What is the Average Directional Index (ADX)?Mon, 24 Mar 2008 20:52:59 -0400
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Choosing a Forex Broker
By Grace Cheng
As you may already know, foreign exchange (Forex/FX) is an unregulated market that is not traded on an exchange, which means that prices you see and get from one broker could vary from those of another broker. There are mainly two types of brokers. One type is an ECN (Electronic Communications Network) and another a Market-Maker.
Market-makers "make" or set the prices on their systems based on what they think is best for themselves as the counter-party. This is because every time you sell, they must buy, and when you buy, they must sell to you. This is why they can give you a fixed spread since they are setting both the bid and the ask price. Many of them will then try to "hedge" or "cover" your order by passing it on to someone else; however, some may decide to hold your order, and thus trade against you. This can result in a conflict of interest between the retail trader (you) and the market-maker.
ECNs, on the other hand, pass on prices from several banks and market-makers, as well as from the other traders in the ECN, and display the best bid/ask prices based on these input. This is why sometimes you can get no spread on ECNs, especially in very liquid currency pairs. How do ECNs make money then? They do so by charging you a fixed commission for each transaction.
Here are some of the pros and cons of ECNs and market-makers:
Market-Makers
Pros:
* Usually give free charting software and news feed
* Prices can be "smoother" and less volatile than ECN prices (this can be a con if you are scalping or trading very short term)
* Often have a more user-friendly trading and analysis interface
Cons:
* They may trade against you. In that case, there will be a conflict of interest between you and them
* The price they offer you may be worse than what you could get on an ECN
* It is possible that they may trigger stops or not let your trade reach your profit target levels by manipulating prices
* During news, there will usually be a large amount of slippage; their systems may also lock up or not allow order placing during times of high volatility
* Many of them discourage scalping and put scalpers on "manual execution" which means their orders may not get filled at the price they want
Examples of some market-makers:
http://www.goforex.net/forex-broker-list.htm#MMECNs
* Pros: You can usually get better bid/ask prices since they come from several sources
* Variable spreads between bid and ask may give no spread or tiny spreads at times
* If they are a true ECN, they will not be trading against you but will pass on your orders to a bank or another customer on the other end of the transaction.
* You will be able to offer a price between the bid and ask with a chance of it getting filled
* If they support Stop-Limit orders, you can prevent slippage during news by making sure that your order either gets filled at the price you want or not at all
* Prices may be more volatile which will be better for scalping
Cons:
* Many do not offer integrated charting
* Many do not offer integrated news
* Many of the trading platforms are less user-friendly
* Because of variable spreads (between bid and ask,) it may be more difficult to calculate stop loss and profit target in pips beforehand.
It is important that you carefully look into the pros and cons of each broker before choosing the one which best suits your needs. You may also wish to have several broker accounts to mitigate the risks, and so that you can compare bid/ask prices and trade on the broker with the best prices for the direction you wish to trade. Because of the unregulated nature of forex, US brokers are not required to keep your money in an untouchable account that only you can have access to if they were to collapse. As customers of Refco (was one of the world's largest brokers) found out, their unprotected accounts made them unsecured creditors, and thus are less likely to get their money back than those who had given secured loans to Refco. What this means is that the customers' money was used to pay other creditors.
The moral of the story is this:
Deposit as little money with your broker as you need for trading, and withdraw your profits when they exceed a certain amount. Keep the rest of your trading capital in your own bank accounts which are probably government-insured.
http://www.gracecheng.com/
Some Quick Forex Informationforex currency trading
There are risks in trading foreign currencies. Like any investment, forex investing carries substantial risk. You can lose all of your money and foreign currency trading can be extremely volatile. Make sure you thoroughly research futures trading and foreign exchange trading entirely before setting off on your adventure.
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One method used in forecasting foreign currency exchange is called technical analysis. This method uses predictions by looking at trends in charts and graphs from past Forex market happenings. This system is based on solid events that have actually taken place in the Forex in the past. Many experience Forex traders and brokers rely on this system because it follows actual trends and can be quite reliable.
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In the field of Forex trading systems, mechanical trading systems are techniques that make trading decisions for you. You input the trading data, and the system generates a response that indicates the appropriate action. You buy, sell, or do nothing depending upon the formulas this system uses and operates upon. The latest computer versions of these mechanical systems are complete "black box" operations (you cannot have all the emotion involved when you follow a specific system). Perhaps, that is one of the reasons that these systems are called mechanical systems. But that doesn�t mean that they aren�t intelligent enough. Turn the computer on, start the system, and it updates your database, and generates trading recommendations, and places your orders directly to the brokers.
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BP raises Texas City compensationTue, 04 Mar 2008 09:00:57 EST
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